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Orange County Housing Report
October 13, 2011

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Orange County Housing Report Archives

Interesting Dynamics.....

Since August 3,370 homes were pulled off the market, representing 34% of the current active listing inventory. Meanwhile, demand has decreased by only 9%. The average decrease in demand over the last eight years during the same time period is 12%. These dynamics represent a healthy step in the right direction and may portend a more stable 2012 than some leading economists are currently forecasting.

In the price ranges below $500,000, right priced homes still obtain multiple offers and obtain a sales price very close to the asking price. The 2011 average sale to current list price ratio is 97%, meaning that there is only 3% flexibility in prices.

The market will begin its transition into the holiday market in mid-November. The holiday market will continue through the first few weeks of the New Year. This is the slowest time of the year for real estate. We can expect both the active listing inventory and demand to continue to decrease. It is a good time to be a buyer. Most sellers whose homes remain on the market will be really motivated.

Demand: Demand actually INCREASED by 1% over the past couple of weeks.

Demand increased by 31 homes and now totals 2,899 pending sales. There are 108 additional pending sales this year compared to last year at this time, 4% stronger.

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The Active Listing Inventory: The active listing inventory has decreased by 5% over the last month.

The active listing inventory has been reduced by 522 homes over the past month and now totals 10,044 homes for sale. The current active inventory levels are healthier than a year ago, with 1,449 or 14% fewer homes for sale.

 

The Distressed Market: The distressed inventory remains much the same.

The impact of “robo-signing” and the ensuing multi-state lawsuits has slowed the foreclosure process and has resulted in a 14% decrease in available distressed properties for sale here in Orange County. We started the year with 4,123 foreclosed properties and short sales on the market, and currently there are 3,544.

Lending institutions typically do not like the bad press that accompanies foreclosures carried out during the holidays, so, for the remainder of the year we can expect the distressed inventory to not change much.

The active distressed inventory decreased by 44 homes in the past two weeks and now totals 3,544. The foreclosed properties inventory increased by 10 homes in the past two weeks and now totals 693. With an expected market time of 1.76 months, it’s a very HOT seller’s market for foreclosed properties. The short sale inventory decreased by 54 home in two weeks and now totals 2,851, representing 28% of all active listings in Orange County. The expected market time for short sales is 2.55 months, also very hot.

Data Source: Steven Thomas, Broker, and SoCalMLS.

 



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